ENERGY DEMAND 2017. GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND TO INCREASE BY 40%
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has said that the total global primary energy demand will rise by 40 percent or 108.2 million barrel of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), by 2040. The sharpest rise would be recorded in developing countries.
THE OPEC REPORT
In its world output report for 2016, OPEC stated: “Developing countries’ energy demand will increase by more than 100 mboe/d from 2014 to 2040 compared to energy demand growth of 3.3 mboe/d in the OECD regions and 4.3 mboe/d in Eurasia. By 2040, almost 63 percent of global energy demand will stem from Developing countries, compared to the current share of 51 percent.” The report also said that oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share for most of the forecast period, but it is anticipated that it will be overtaken by gas at some point close to 2040.
According to the report, oil is also estimated to be the second largest contributor to additional energy needs between 2014 and 2040. Although overall, coal consumption is forecast to increase in the long term, its share in the total global energy mix is expected to decline by 4.4 percentage points.
The report projected global gas demand increment on average by 2.1percent per annum, from around 60 mboe/d in 2014 to 102 mboe/d in 2040. This represents the largest increase among all energy sources. Also, nuclear power is expected to increase significantly over the forecast period, driven by energy security and the need to limit CO2 emissions. Other renewables which include wind, Photo voltaic, PV, solar thermal and geothermal is expected to increase from 3 mboe/d as at 2014 to 18 mboe/d in 2040 bringing its share in the global energy mix to almost 5 percent.
A POSITIVE TREND THAT GIVES HOPE
OPEC said, globally, energy intensity, measured as the amount of energy required to produce one unit of GDP, is falling and this trend is expected to continue over the long-term. “Energy consumption per capita in OECD regions peaked around 2005 and is now on a steady downward trend”.
This reflects a service-oriented economy and technology-induced energy efficiency gains. “In emerging and developing economies, energy consumption per capita is increasing, reflecting greater electrification, urbanization, expansion of the middle class, overall economic development and strong economic growth. Despite this positive trend, energy poverty and access to affordable, reliable and modern energy for all will remain a major challenge in developing countries,” the report stated.
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